Field notes on wildfire risk, the new California rules, and what parcel-level intelligence changes. New analysis every week — the science, in the open.
Every major cat model scores itself on data it already trained on. Here's why that's memorization, not prediction — and what a sealed forecast proves that a backtest never can.
Read the analysisZIP-code and county models can't tell two neighbors apart. We walk through a real block where parcel-level scoring flips the underwriting decision — and the math behind it.
Read the analysisThe state now mandates forward-looking, parcel-level models for rate-setting. We break down what the new framework actually requires — and why the incumbents can't meet it.
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